It feels strange writing a weekly newsletter after a gap of nearly three months, but in my defense— in our defense— it has been one of the most momentous three months in Indian history. I hope you and your family members have weathered the storm. I hope you have had a chance to exhale. It’s the moments in between that carry the full weight and realization of what exactly is going on. My heart hurts for all of you.
It is difficult to call the last few months, a “second wave” of infections, because even waves recede. What we experienced was a tsunami. But in the midst of this, frightening and heartbreaking time, we didn’t need positivity or negativity, we needed transparency and honesty.
Hospitals were overwhelmed. There simply weren’t enough beds. And patients died from lack of oxygen. People begged for tanks, concentrators, ventilators, and drugs on social media. It was a constant stream of misery. I had never seen anything like this in my life.
All of us know someone who didn’t make it. It feels unreal just typing this out right now. And this is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg because the true extent of the tragedy remains unknown.
In the midst of this tsunami was misinformation, denial, false accusations, and the horrific tragedy of being unprepared after months of a head start. Regarding the amplitude of the tragedy, how do you model stupidity, apathy, antiscience, unwillingness to stop crowds or to even take basic measures, bravado, systemic healthcare breakdown, miscommunication, and low vaccination rates?
In recent days it has come to light that mathematical models did not foresee a second wave of this magnitude. India was lulled into a sense that this could never happen. And the same people are at it again. Fitting and overfitting their models like a mechanic with one wrench. But we still don’t know why the first wave subsided. And so many including myself had urged caution and humility.
Drugs requests flooded social media. In my own family, an otherwise healthy, young relative was prescribed a dozen drugs including antibiotics and steroids for mild COVID-19. But you cannot medicate your way out of a pandemic if the drugs are not indicated and don't work.
And in the midst of it, mucormycosis- a debilitating fungal disease ravaged hospitals. India quickly became a set of nesting dolls of tragedies.
We know that in the long-term vaccines are the only solution. But you can’t open up vaccines to everyone and expect to resolve the problem if enough vaccines do not exist. When the second wave hit, only 3% of the population had been fully vaccinated.
In the long-term, India needs to build up healthcare capacity. No country can deal with the surge of a pandemic without measures, but the bedrock of a healthcare system is one that has a plan with triggers for measures to prevent it from being overrun.
The honest truth is the so-called system never worked. But as long as it worked reasonably well for privileged people, most of them were willing to either support it or look the other way when grievous harm befell others.
Once this is over— and it will be over— I hope the deep-set problems that caused this collapse are fixed, instead of just trying to manage or arrange to get by with band-aid solutions until the next crisis.
What I’ve been up to.
As I restart this newsletter after a hiatus, I want to share some of the things that I have been up to in the interim. I have been writing a weekly column, Speaking Scientifically, for Hindustan Times. I have to say that it has been a lot of fun so far. Every week I talk about one topic in science covering seminal papers, paradigm shifts, and researchers.
Please let me know what you think. All of these columns are available to download to those who register or click on skip.
The king of dinosaurs.
T. rex is nearly everyone’s favorite dinosaur. How many ever lived? How big were they? How fast did they grow? Did you know they were feathered and related to living dinosaurs like chickens?
How bad is the variant of concern first identified in India?
I wrote this as information was emerging about B.1.617.2, later dubbed the Delta variant. I’m proud to say that all of the observations have more-or-less held up to subsequent data and scrutiny. The take home is that two doses of vaccines work to prevent symptomatic COVID-19 and severe disease.
Welcoming a golden era of RNA vaccines
RNA vaccines for COVID-19 work better than anyone expected. But they weren't developed in a year. They took decades. And now we're entering a golden area of RNA vaccines. What made RNA vaccines possible now?
How do elephants beat cancer?
One of the greatest mysteries in biology is why large animals exist at all. A whale or an elephant with the same risk of cancer as a human wouldn't live to adulthood. And yet, they do. Now, scientists have cracked Peto's Paradox.
Decoding the evolution of coronaviruses
More viruses infect people than we know of, including two novel coronaviruses that have just been discovered. What does it mean?
A climate change solution that might actually destroy the planet.
The connection between a pollutant, reports of snow in Chennai, and Mary Shelley's "Frankenstein". The last ditch effort to stop climate change in the news now that might change the tint of the sky and cause catastrophic monsoon failure.
Mix-and-match COVID-19 vaccines
What do we know about a mix-and-match strategy for COVID-19 vaccines? Should public health experts consider it? What more do we need to know?
What else I’ve been up to
If it wasn’t obvious to anyone who follows me, I have been incessantly reading, writing, and talking about COVID-19 for the past few months.
I spoke to Amit Varma for nearly three hours on The Seen and the Unseen. I enjoyed it immensely.
I chatted with Somak Ghoshal for Mint Lounge on science, vaccines, and the second wave.
I was briefly on Bloomberg TV talking about my book and India’s second wave.
I wrote a long essay for Mint on how variants emerge in early April and on the effectiveness of vaccines against variants a few weeks later.
I had a very lively discussion with Odisha Dialogues on my book. You can watch the full video here.
I was on NDTV twice talking about India’s second wave.
I really enjoyed this long discussion with The Morning Context on the effectiveness of vaccines versus variants. You can watch the full video here
I had a super chat with Krish Ashok for #MasalaGab on Twitter Spaces. Unfortunately, there’s no transcript of our awesome conversation.
I spoke in Bangla with my friend Suvam Pal and writer Biswajit Jha about writing during a pandemic
I had a wonderful session as part of The Conversation Series of Ahmedabad University - Evidence In The Era Of Misinformation: Using Science To Combat The COVID-19 Pandemic. The entire video is here.
COVID-19: Separating Fact from Fiction is doing well.
I hope you’ve had a chance to read and comment on my book since my last newsletter. If not, what are you waiting for? ;-)
I’ve received some really flattering comments over the past few months, and at the risk of sounding pompous I’d like to share a few of them with you.
'If you had to read just one book to explain the coronavirus pandemic that stopped the world in 2020, Anirban Mahapatra’s should be it.’ - Ranjona Banerji in The Deccan Chronicle and Asian Age.
‘A ready reckoner on the coronavirus’ Editor’s Pick at Hindustan Times (May 1)
'If you had the time to read just one of the eight books on this list, this is the book to read.' - Vivek Kaul in Mint Lounge.
‘This book is a must-read’ - Dr. Meher Wan in Science Reporter.
I am very pleased with this review. Science Reporter was the first science magazine I bought with pocket money in high school. It was always a breath of fresh air every month for a boy in a district town.
’Although this book was written as a topical commentary on the pandemic, it deserves to be a keeper. It has many of the hallmarks of a popular science classic due to the breadth of coverage and the lucidity of explanations.‘ - Devangshu Datta for Business Standard.
Welcome back. Was missing this. Thankfully horrendous time is over, till next time. One of the young family members had a corona. Fortunately, he recovered well. Now worrying has started for Delta +! Will it ever end? I have downloaded your book on Kindle. Frankly yet to read it as mind had gone blank last few months and thought I will read it when the fear subsides.
Thank you Sir